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Regulatory quasi-monopoly with sovereign GoI backing, ROCE 33.9%, net-cash balance sheet, and 46% discount to sector PE — thesis intact despite working capital drag.
Earnings Quality Flag
Interest income ₹2,566 Cr = 30.7% of net profit. Operating PE ~50x, not 32.7x.
Entry Guidance
Wait for ₹3,650 — currently 16% above GOOD entry zone
HAL had 8 key metrics worth tracking. Only one mattered for the verdict: operating PE of ~50x, not the screener's 32.7x.
The methodology
A structured answer. Not a chart.
Four pillars. Fixed rules. Sector-adjusted weights. The same framework applied to every stock — scores are comparable, not impressionistic.
HAL · Conviction
Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd
Macro adjusted · +0.2
Investor lens
The verdict is arithmetic.
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HAL · Conviction Breakdown
Lens · Compounder
Investor Lens · pick one
Compounder weights
HAL conviction under this lens
8.0/10Full transparency
The insight lives
in the thinking.
Every verdict comes with the full reasoning chain. Four steps, each scored and explained — so you can disagree with the AI and still walk away with a sharper view.
Regulatory quasi-monopoly as sole domestic military aircraft manufacturer. ROCE 33.9% sustained 3+ years. Atmanirbhar mandate and MRO switching costs create structural moat.
Revenue CAGR 17.1% (5Y). OPM expanded 15% → 31%. BUT: interest income ₹2,566 Cr = 30.7% of net profit. Operating PE ~50x, not the headline 32.7x. WC days creeping 65 → 121.
GoI 71.64% holding, zero pledge. ICRA AAA. No audit concerns, no SEBI enforcement. Board independence verified.
32.7x PE at 46% discount to sector median (61x). Fair valued on adjusted operating earnings — not cheap enough for deep value, not expensive for the quality.
What's included
Every verdict,
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Not just a score. Entry zones, earnings flags, investor lens adjustment, and a research assistant — all built into every analysis.
Three mathematically-derived price zones — Aggressive, Conservative, Deep Value — each with reasoning and an exact entry trigger.
HAL · Wait for ₹3,650 · Currently 16% above good zone
HAL's headline PE is 32.7x. But interest income ₹2,566 Cr = 30.7% of net profit. Operating PE is ~50x. We flag it explicitly.
HAL · Operating PE ~50x · Not 32.7x screener PE
Every analysis includes an AI research assistant trained on the full reasoning chain. Drill into any number, any assumption.
"Why is working capital a concern?" — ask in the chat
Buffett weights Business Quality at 45%. Graham weights Value at 35%. Switch lens — HAL's conviction moves from 8.1 to 7.3 in one click.
HAL · Graham lens → 7.3/10 · Compounder lens → 8.1/10
Living analysis
Opinions should change
as facts change.
Every analysis updates incrementally when new data arrives. HAL's conviction moved 8.3 → 8.1 when working capital deteriorated — and the reasoning trail shows exactly why.
HAL · Conviction History
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited
Initial thesis: regulatory moat + Atmanirbhar tailwind. 46% PE discount to sector.
Working capital days rose 65 → 121. LCA/LCH WIP buildup flagged. Conviction trimmed 0.2.
US-Iran war escalation Apr 2026 → macro +0.2 sustained. Conviction unchanged.
HAL · Invalidation Trigger
Watch: Working Capital Days
HIGH PROBIf WC days exceed 150 consecutively for 2 quarters → financial health score drops to 5 → conviction falls below 7.5 → verdict moves to WATCH.
What this means
When HAL next reports, VERDIKT checks this trigger first. If it fires, conviction updates automatically and you're notified.
Current status
WC Days: 121 · Threshold: 150 · Status: MONITORING
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Avg conviction
7.8
across BUY verdicts