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A soft US June jobs report (57K vs 110K expected) released July 2–3 triggered a dovish repricing of Fed expectations, cutting September rate-hike odds to roughly 50% from ~67% and weakening the dollar. Crude fell to pre-conflict lows as Strait of Hormuz shipping recovered under an extended US-Iran ceasefire, easing global inflation concerns. Indian equities rallied, led by IT's best session in 14 months, though the rupee hit a record low near 95.40/USD.

Indian equities firmed into the July 4 weekend, with Nifty reclaiming 24,000 and closing near 24,270 (Sensex ~77,765) on July 3, driven by a sharp collapse in Brent crude to ~$72/bbl (down ~24% MoM) and an IT-led rebound. The RBI held the repo rate at 5.25% (neutral stance) at its June 5 meeting, cutting FY27 GDP to 6.6% and raising the CPI forecast to 5.1%. Softening crude eased rupee pressure (INR ~94.9/USD) and lifted sentiment, though FPI outflows and rising retail inflation (CPI 3.93% in May, fifth straight increase) remain overhangs.