Brent ended at $103.21 a barrel, down 1.2% on the week but up 12.7% in a month.

Crude hit a four-month high of about $106.94 on 15 September after damage to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and continued disruption near the Strait of Hormuz, before easing on signs that supply was being rerouted. India imports the bulk of its crude, so a sustained $100-plus level widens the current account deficit, weakens the rupee and lifts input costs, all of which compress the earnings multiple the market is willing to pay. Oil & Gas marketing and refining margins are squeezed because retail fuel prices have not kept pace, while Auto faces weaker demand as running costs rise and FMCG faces higher packaging, freight and palm-linked input bills.

The US Fed raised rates 25bps to 3.75-4.00%, its first hike since July 2023.

The 16 September decision was unanimous at 12-0 and the dot plot showed most officials expect at least one more hike in 2026, pushing the US 10-year yield back to around 5% and the dollar index to a one-month high. Higher global discount rates directly reduce the fair value of long-duration, high-multiple Indian stocks and make it harder for foreign money to stay in emerging markets. IT is hit twice over, through richer valuations being marked down and through the risk that higher US rates slow client technology budgets, while Banking faces pressure as India's 10-year yield near 7.1% brings mark-to-market losses on bond books.

CPI inflation rose to 4.82% in August and WPI to 9.92%.

Retail inflation, released on 14 September, was the highest since December 2024 and up from 4.45% in July, with food inflation at 5.95%; wholesale inflation stayed above 9% for a fourth straight month, driven by fuel and power at 22.9%. With the repo rate held at 5.25% for a fourth consecutive review and a neutral stance, the market has effectively priced out near-term rate cuts, which caps the re-rating potential of rate-sensitive stocks. Banking and NBFC lose the earnings tailwind that a cutting cycle would have given loan growth and margins, while Consumer Durables faces a squeeze from both higher input costs and weaker discretionary demand.

FIIs sold ₹7,620 crore this week while DIIs bought ₹11,232 crore.

This was a fifth straight week of foreign selling; month to date FIIs are net sellers of ₹7,041 crore against DII buying of ₹36,219 crore, and the Nifty is down 3.05% from its August-end close of 24,080.40. Domestic flows, largely SIP-driven, are the only reason valuations have not corrected harder, but they cannot lift the index while foreign money keeps leaving. The rupee ended at 95.96 with the RBI intervening in spot and forward markets. Within the week Defence fell 3.8% and Consumer Durables 2.7%, while IT stayed weak and Banking was mixed as heavyweight lenders came under pressure.

TCS fell 3.25% on Friday as the Tata Sons board dispute escalated.

The Tata Sons board approved a fresh five-year term for N Chandrasekaran by a 4-1 vote and moved towards RBI upper-layer NBFC compliance that could require a listing, both opposed by Tata Trusts, which owns about 66% of Tata Sons. Listed Tata companies lost roughly ₹31,000-40,000 crore, or about $3.2 billion, in market value on 18 September, with Tata Chemicals down as much as 10%. This is a governance discount rather than an earnings downgrade, but it raises the risk premium on a group that is a large part of index weight. IT is most exposed through TCS, and Auto through Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles.

Trump signed a law on 18 September allowing 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers.

The Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act takes effect within 30 days and gives the US President discretion over which countries are targeted and at what rate, with India and China named as the main buyers. India currently faces a 10% India-specific Section 301 tariff on top of MFN duties, imposed in July, after the February trade deal cut the reciprocal rate to 18% and then the Supreme Court struck down that regime. A escalation would hit export earnings and revive the currency and current account pressure seen in 2025. Oil & Gas refiners that process discounted Russian barrels are the direct target, and Textiles is the most tariff-sensitive Indian export category to the US.

Banking system liquidity hit a record ₹11.6 lakh crore surplus on 7 September.

The surplus came from the RBI's special FCNR(B) swap window, which mobilised $127.23 billion in under three months and took total special-measure inflows to about $136.38 billion, helping push forex reserves to a record $740.8 billion. The RBI has been draining it aggressively, absorbing more than ₹6 lakh crore in a single day and running a ₹7 lakh crore 30-day VRRR. SBI Research estimated this week that the scheme could support about ₹25 lakh crore of incremental credit and a notional ₹5 lakh crore benefit to lenders over five years, plus roughly ₹50,000 crore for the RBI. Banking gets cheaper funding and lower reliance on bulk deposits, and NBFC benefits from softer wholesale and certificate-of-deposit rates.

NSE's ₹22,562 crore IPO was 2.03 times subscribed by day two.

The offer, entirely an offer for sale of 12.64 crore shares at ₹1,700-1,785, opened on 17 September, closes on 21 September and lists on BSE on 24 September; grey market premium had fallen to ₹70, about 4% over the upper band, from a peak of ₹320. Separately, SEBI's consultation paper proposes moving expiry-day derivatives settlement to a VWAP or VWAP-CAS blend and ending cancellation of limit orders beyond 1% during the closing auction, with responses due 3 October. Index options average daily turnover on NSE and BSE fell 17% and 26% respectively in August after CAS was introduced. Capital Markets sees near-term absorption of primary-market liquidity but a clearer regulatory path for derivatives volumes.