Market Intelligence
Global Macro.
Economic, geopolitical & supply chain developments
Last updated
27 Aug 2026, 01:33 pm· 5h ago
Developments
7
Negative
2
Positive
2
Sectors Hit
9
Sectors Affected
Key Signals
Brent crude -8%+ WoW to ~$86.3/bbl; WTI ~$82/bbl on Strait of Hormuz de-escalation
Fed funds at 3.50-3.75%; Core PCE 3.3% y/y; CME odds ~38% for a September HIKE
DXY ~98.5-98.8, three-month low; EUR/USD ~1.17; USD/JPY ~158-159
Gold ~$4,593/oz, -1.38% on the day but +12.66% MoM
Sensex 77,473 (-0.24%); Nifty 24,208 (-0.52%) on Aug 26; USD/INR ~95.7
India Q2 GDP seen easing to ~7.1% from 7.8%; BOJ on hold at 0.5%, ~51% odds of Oct hike
Global markets are in a risk-on relief phase as crude oil fell more than 8% week-on-week on Iran-Oman talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing inflation and energy-supply fears. Attention centers on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote (Aug 28) amid a split FOMC where markets price roughly 38% odds of a September rate HIKE rather than a cut, while the dollar sits at a three-month low. For India, softer oil and a lighter-than-feared US tariff backdrop support sentiment, but a weak rupee near 95.7/USD, moderating GDP, and heavy FPI caution temper gains.
Watch Next 7 Days
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote and BLS payrolls benchmark revision (Aug 28)
India Q2 FY27 GDP release (early September; consensus ~7.1%)
US nonfarm payrolls/jobs report (Sep 5) and CPI ahead of the Sep 16-17 FOMC; Strait of Hormuz reopening talks
Key Developments
Crude oil fell over 8% week-on-week, with Brent near $86.3/bbl and WTI near $82/bbl, driven by reports that Iran and Oman are discussing an interim framework to restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, plus US claims that ~10 million barrels transited the waterway. Softer oil eases global inflation pressure, lowers input costs, and is a clear positive for oil-importing economies like India, supporting margins in oil-sensitive sectors and easing the current-account/inflation outlook.
Read more
The Fed held at 3.50-3.75% with a divided FOMC under Chair Kevin Warsh, who dropped forward guidance. Core PCE held at 3.3% y/y, and markets price roughly 38% odds of a September HIKE alongside scenarios for a hold, a hawkish stance unusual versus prior easing expectations. Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote on Aug 28 is the key tie-breaker. Persistent US rate uncertainty raises the cost of capital globally and can pressure emerging-market flows and rate-sensitive equities.
Read more
The US dollar index sits near a three-month low around 98.5-98.8, with EUR/USD near 1.17 on a relatively hawkish ECB (holding since June, euro-area inflation ~2.9%) and USD/JPY near 158-159. The 30-year US Treasury yield sat near a 19-year high amid Treasury buyback expansion for long-dated debt, reflecting fiscal/debt-supply concerns. A softer dollar is generally supportive for emerging-market assets and commodities, though elevated long-end yields temper the benefit.
Read more
Geopolitical risk remains elevated: Bloomberg reported Russia is preparing to intensify attacks on Ukraine, keeping energy-supply risk in focus even as Hormuz tensions ease. Fresh US sanctions on Iran landed lighter than markets feared, sparing Iran's trading partners. These crosscurrents keep oil and gold volatile and sustain a geopolitical risk premium that can flare quickly and hit risk appetite across sectors.
Read more
Trade friction persists globally, with Canada matching newly imposed US tariffs via dollar-for-dollar retaliatory duties and rolling out support for affected industries. For India, the earlier US-India trade deal cut reciprocal tariffs (down from a peak 50%), materially better than feared, but residual tariff and Russian-oil-purchase frictions continue to weigh on export-facing sectors like textiles, gems and jewelry, and chemicals, while IT services and pharma remain largely exempt.
Read more
Indian equities are consolidating: Sensex closed at 77,473 (-0.24%) and Nifty at 24,208 (-0.52%) on Aug 26, with IT, FMCG, and auto shares weighing while financials and select metals outperformed. The rupee is weak near 95.7/USD, and Q2 GDP due next week is expected to moderate to ~7.1% from 7.8% in Q1. RBI communication has raised questions about its policy stance. Weak INR pressures importers and FPI flows but cushions IT/pharma exporters.
Read more
Gold trades near $4,593/oz, down 1.38% on the day on softer inflation signals and reduced Fed-cut urgency, but still up ~12.66% month-on-month and ~35% year-on-year, reflecting strong structural demand including an ~11% MoM rise in China's net gold imports via Hong Kong in July. Elevated gold supports Indian jewelry-linked lenders and miners but signals persistent macro hedging demand and lingering risk aversion.
Read more