Market Intelligence
Global Macro.
Economic, geopolitical & supply chain developments
Last updated
4 Jul 2026, 09:29 pm· 1d ago
Developments
7
Negative
1
Positive
5
Sectors Hit
6
Sectors Affected
Key Signals
Fed funds held 3.50-3.75%; Sept hike odds fell to ~50% from ~67%
US June nonfarm payrolls +57K vs +110K est; unemployment 4.2%, wages +3.5% YoY
Brent ~$72/bbl, WTI ~$68.5/bbl, down ~3-4% WoW, lowest since Feb 27
Gold ~$4,170/oz, +2% WoW after 4 weeks of declines (-6.8% MoM)
DXY ~100.8, largest weekly drop since April, snapping 2-week win streak
Nifty ~24,176, Sensex ~77,502; USD/INR ~95.40 (record low)
A soft US June jobs report (57K vs 110K expected) released July 2–3 triggered a dovish repricing of Fed expectations, cutting September rate-hike odds to roughly 50% from ~67% and weakening the dollar. Crude fell to pre-conflict lows as Strait of Hormuz shipping recovered under an extended US-Iran ceasefire, easing global inflation concerns. Indian equities rallied, led by IT's best session in 14 months, though the rupee hit a record low near 95.40/USD.
Watch Next 7 Days
US June CPI release (mid-July) — key input for the July 28-29 FOMC decision
OPEC+ August production-quota decision (early July)
India-Japan Summit outcomes and continued US-Iran talks in Doha
Key Developments
US June nonfarm payrolls rose just 57,000 versus ~110,000 expected, the smallest gain in four months, with April/May revised lower and unemployment ticking to 4.2% on a shrinking labor force. Markets slashed the probability of a September Fed rate hike to ~50% from ~67%, reviving expectations of a more supportive global rate environment after a hawkish June FOMC (held at 3.50-3.75%, dot plot implying possible hikes). Risk assets and rate-sensitive sectors benefited.
Read more
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at the ECB Forum in Sintra, said inflation expectations are moderating and there is no immediate urgency to tighten, while reaffirming a commitment to price stability. The dovish tilt, combined with the weak jobs print, pressured Treasury yields and the dollar and eased the 'higher-for-longer/possible hike' overhang that had weighed on equity valuations.
Read more
Crude fell to pre-conflict lows (Brent ~$72, WTI ~$68.5, down ~3-4% on the week) as Strait of Hormuz throughput recovered above 10 million bpd, Saudi exports returned to ~90% of pre-war levels and the UAE restored flows above 3.9 million bpd. A US-Iran ceasefire was extended 60 days with talks continuing in Doha, and OPEC+ is expected to approve a further August output increase. Lower energy costs ease inflation and input pressures, a clear positive for oil-importing India.
Read more
The US dollar index fell to ~100.8, its largest weekly decline since April, as rate-hike bets were pared. A softer dollar typically supports emerging-market capital flows and commodities, though it coincided with continued weakness in the Indian rupee.
Read more
Gold rebounded ~2% on the week to ~$4,170/oz (highest since June 23) after four straight weekly declines, lifted by softer jobs data, a weaker dollar and lower real-yield pressure, plus net central-bank buying (~41 tonnes in May). It remains down ~6.8% month-on-month and well below early-2026 record highs, reflecting a rate-expectation repricing rather than a demand collapse.
Read more
Indian equities advanced against mostly weaker Asian peers: Nifty50 closed ~24,176 and Sensex ~77,502 (both +~0.7-0.8%), with Nifty IT posting its best session in ~14 months on short covering, dovish Fed signals, easing crude and enterprise-AI optimism. Auto, consumer durables and realty also outperformed, aided by lower oil and a supportive rate backdrop.
Read more
The Indian rupee weakened to a record low near 95.40 per US dollar despite broad dollar softness, pressured by import/flow dynamics. A weaker rupee raises imported-inflation and input-cost risks for import-heavy sectors but benefits IT and other export earners. Sentiment was cushioned by optimism around the India-Japan Summit (trade, defence, semiconductors, AI cooperation and a proposed rupee-yen settlement framework).
Read more