Market Intelligence
Global Macro.
Economic, geopolitical & supply chain developments
Last updated
24 Apr 2026, 12:14 pm· 26d ago
Developments
7
Negative
5
Positive
0
Sectors Hit
0
Key Signals
Brent crude at $105.73/bbl (Apr 24), up ~47% since Feb 27; peaked at ~$120/bbl in March; Strait of Hormuz 90%+ closed, cutting ~10mn bpd supply.
Strait of Hormuz remains functionally closed; tanker traffic collapsed >90%; ~20,000 mariners and 2,000 ships stranded in Persian Gulf as of Apr 21.
Gold at ~$4,738/oz (Apr 23), down ~10% from Jan 2026 peak of $5,596 but up ~82% YoY; rate hike expectations dampening haven bid.
DXY at ~98.13–98.23, near multi-year lows; Fed independence concerns and Kevin Warsh confirmation hearing (Apr 21) signal potential policy 'regime change'.
Indian Rupee at ~93–94/USD (record low 99.82 in March); FPI outflows ₹1.8L crore (~$26.8B) YTD 2026; RBI deployed $12–15B FX reserves.
IMF April 2026 WEO: global growth cut to 3.1%, EM growth to 3.9% (from 4.2% in Jan); India, China, South Korea flagged as vulnerable.
Fed funds rate held at 3.5–3.75% (March FOMC); April 28–29 meeting: broad consensus for hold; March CPI +0.9% MoM (highest since 2022), core +0.2%.
ECB and BOE now pricing rate hikes over next 12 months; BOJ targeting 1.0% by end-2026; DM central banks tightening bias raises global borrowing costs.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis—triggered by the US-Iran war beginning March 1, 2026—remains the dominant macro driver, with crude above $105/bbl, fragile ceasefire, and 90%+ closure cutting ~10mn bpd of global supply. India faces acute headwinds: record-low rupee, $26.8B FPI outflows YTD, and downgraded growth forecasts.
Key Developments
Strait of Hormuz functionally closed (90%+ blockade); tanker traffic collapsed >90%; ~10mn bpd crude supply cut; ~20,000 mariners and 2,000 ships stranded in Persian Gulf. Trump ordered US Navy (Apr 23) to destroy Iranian mine-laying boats, escalating commercial shipping risk. IEA flagged potential 'largest energy crisis ever faced.' Gulf producers cut output or exhausted storage. Supply bottlenecks expected to anchor Brent at $80–90/bbl post-reopening.
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Two-week ceasefire extended but fragile; Iran seized 2 container ships (Apr 22), refusing strait reopening while US maintains naval blockade on Iranian ports. Iran's parliament advancing law requiring >$1M/ship tolls. Trump threatened to resume bombing if Iran fails to present new peace proposal. Israel-Lebanon ceasefire also extended 3 weeks (Apr 24). Geopolitical and energy supply risk premium elevated.
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FOMC meets Apr 28–29; broad consensus for hold at 3.5–3.75%. March CPI +0.9% MoM (highest since 2022, energy-driven); core +0.2% MoM. March nonfarm payrolls +178K; unemployment 4.3%. J.P. Morgan and Bankrate expect no change rest of 2026. Kevin Warsh Senate hearing (Apr 21) pledged Fed independence but advocated 'regime change': abandon forward guidance, dot plot, shrink balance sheet, rethink inflation measurement. Confirmation blocked by Sen. Tillis pending DOJ probe into Powell. 10-yr UST yield rose to 4.29%; 5-yr to 3.91%. Powell's term ends May 2026.
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India hit by acute macro shock from oil crisis. Rupee fell to record 99.82/USD (March), recovered to ~93–94/USD; RBI deployed $12–15B from $723B forex reserves for stabilization. FPI equity outflows ₹1.8L crore ($26.8B) YTD, exceeding full-year 2025 record. Goldman Sachs cut FY26 GDP to 5.9%; Oxford Economics to 6.2%; IMF cut FY27 to 6.5% (vs. govt target 6.8–7.2%). LPG prices rose ₹60/cylinder; agri input inflation 12–18% (diesel, fertilizer). RBI repo at 5.25% with neutral stance. India imports ~90% crude, ~80% LNG from Middle East—direct Hormuz exposure.
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IMF April 2026 WEO cut global 2026 growth to 3.1% (from Jan baseline); EM growth to 3.9% (from 4.2%). Global inflation expected to rise 2026, decline 2027. Downside risks flagged: conflict escalation, geopolitical fragmentation, trade tensions, high public debt. India, China, South Korea identified as vulnerable net oil-importing EMs with preexisting fiscal pressures.
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Gold ~$4,738–4,785/oz (Apr 21–24), down ~10% from Jan 2026 high $5,596, up ~82% YoY. Pressure on gold despite geopolitical risk: rising inflation expectations (energy-driven) forcing markets to price central bank rate hikes, not cuts. ECB and BOE now pricing hikes over 12 months. DXY near multi-year lows ~98.1 but insufficient to support gold. Goldman Sachs maintains year-end 2026 gold target $5,400/oz, citing ~60 tonnes/month central bank buying and expectations of two further US rate cuts.
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BOJ monetary policy meeting Apr 27–28; targeting 1.0% by end-2026 from current ~0.75%, gradual tightening path. Global energy shock and growth uncertainty may prompt cautious tone. ECB holds next decision Apr 30 (held rates unchanged Feb 5). Both ECB and BOE pricing rate hikes (not cuts) over next 12 months as oil inflation reverses 2025 disinflation. DM central bank tightening raises global borrowing costs, increases pressure on EM capital flows including India.
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